Ad hoc: Deutsche Post AG revises guidance for fiscal year 2024
10/30/2024
Disclosure of inside information pursuant to Article 17 MAR
The Board of Management of Deutsche Post AG has today reviewed the current business development and the resulting insights for the remainder of the year.
In the domestic parcel businesses, the seasonal acceleration of e-commerce deliveries to consumers (B2C, Business-to-Consumer) appears to materialize as expected from the end of September. However, B2B volumes continue to be characterized by weak economic dynamics. Additionally, the decline in letter volumes was yoy higher in the third quarter.
Based on today's review, the Board of Management continues to expect that the Group will benefit from a seasonal increase in B2C shipment volumes until the end of the year. However, for B2B and mail volumes there is, based on the trading in October, currently no indication of a better development. Also, in the air freight forwarding business margins stay below expectations, despite some seasonal acceleration of volumes.
Therefore, the Board of Management has decided to adjust the Group EBIT guidance for the year 2024 to more than EUR 5.8 billion (previously: EUR 6.0-6.6 billion). The DHL divisions are expected to contribute more than EUR 5.5 billion (previously: more than EUR 5.7 billion) and the Post & Parcel Germany division around EUR 0.8 billion (previously: more than EUR 0.8 billion).
In line with market developments, the Group has also reduced the expected capital expenditure (excl. leases) for the full year 2024 to EUR 3.0-3.2 billion (previously: EUR 3.0-3.6 billion). Considering a year-to-date increase in working capital, especially in the Forwarding, Freight division, and the adjustment of investments, the Group expects a continued high full year 2024 free cash flow (excl. Net M&A) of now EUR 2.8-3.0 billion (previously: around EUR 3.0 billion).
Based on the adjusted expectations for 2024 and the weaker macroeconomic environment particularly in Europe, the Board of Management has also revised the guidance for the medium-term growth of Group EBIT to more than EUR 7.0 billion by 2026 (previously EUR 7.5-8.5 billion). Expectations for investments and free cash flow remain unchanged in the cumulative ranges for 2024 to 2026.
The business figures for the third quarter were within market expectations. However, the underlying business development already reflected the previously described subdued dynamics in B2B volumes and divisional developments to some extent. Group EBIT for the third quarter of 2024 amounted to EUR 1.373 billion (previous year: EUR 1.372 billion). This Group EBIT number includes a positive net effect from developments in various legal disputes of around EUR 70 million in P&P Germany.
Contributions by the individual divisions were as follows: Express EUR 686 million (previous year: EUR 667 million); Global Forwarding, Freight EUR 277 million (previous year: EUR 306 million); Supply Chain EUR 274 million (previous year: EUR 242 million); eCommerce EUR 50 million (previous year: EUR 55 million) and Post & Parcel Germany EUR 171 million (previous year: EUR 207 million).
The comprehensive reporting of the third quarter 2024 will be published on November 5th, 2024 at 0700h CET as planned.
Financial indicators:
Explanations on these financial indicators are available in the DHL Group 2023 Annual Report (see page 32ff) which is published on the company's website at the link below: